《保险研究》2013年第2期目录及摘要

相关链接：《保险研究》2013年第1期目录及摘要

            《保险研究》关注的研究方向(2013)

2013年的中国保险监管工作

项俊波

（中国保险监督管理委员会，北京 100033）

［摘  要］  2012年保险市场运行总体平稳，风险得到有效防范，市场秩序有所好转，服务经济社会的能力不断提高；保险监管机构牢牢把握稳中求进的工作基调，进一步强化监管为民的理念。2013年保险监管工作要坚持稳中求进，坚持解放思想、改革创新，坚持“抓服务、严监管、防风险、促发展”，更加注重保护保险消费者权益，着力解决保险市场和保险监管存在的突出问题，促进保险业持续健康发展。要牢牢守住不发生系统性区域性风险的底线；加大消费者权益保护工作力度；继续推进改革创新；力争在规范市场秩序方面取得新的成效；加强对保险法人机构的监管；加强保险监管干部队伍建设。并积极推进保险产品定价机制与监管；行业竞争力提升；进一步争取政策支持；全面梳理和完善监管法律法规体系等问题的四项工作。
［关键词］  保险市场；保险监管；风险防范

Insurance Regulation and Supervision Work in 2013

Xiang Junbo

(China Insurance Regulatory Commission,Beijing 100033)

Abstract：The operation of the insurance market in 2012 was stable on the whole,with proper prevention of risks,improvement of market order and enhancement of the industry\'s capability to serve socio-economic development. The insurance regulatory body unswervingly adhered to the principle of seeking advancement on the basis of stability and further strengthened the concept of regulating the market for the benefit of the people. In 2013,the regulatory work will follow the principles of seeking advancement on the basis of stability,emancipating the mind,and reform and innovation,and moreover focus on “improving services,stringent supervision,preventing risks and promoting development”. More emphasis will be put on protecting consumer interests,and solving conflicts between insurance market and insurance regulation in order to enhance healthy and continuous development of the insurance industry. We should firmly hold the bottom line of eruption of systematic and regional risks,further strengthen the protection of consumer interests,continue to promote reform and innovation,strive to achieve good results in regularizing market order,strengthen supervision on insurance entities and build up the staff team for the supervision work. We will also proactively promote the insurance pricing mechanism and its supervision,enhance the competitiveness of the industry,strive for more policy support,and thoroughly streamline the regulation laws and regulations.
Key words： insurance market;insurance regulation and supervision;risk prevention

项俊波在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

坚持 “抓服务、严监管、防风险、促发展” 促进保险业又好又快发展

对我国农业保险风险管理创新问题的几点看法

巴曙松

(国务院发展研究中心，北京 100010)

［摘  要］  由于自身的弱质性和生产过程的特殊性，农业生产和经营过程中各种风险因素复杂多样，是典型的风险产业。农业风险具有风险单位大、发生频率较高、损失规模较大、区域效应明显等特点。因此，针对不同类型风险如产量风险、价格风险和巨灾风险，需要不同的风险管理手段。传统的产量风险符合大数定律，可通过集合众多保险单位分散和化解，而针对价格风险和巨灾风险，则需要利用与资本市场对接和政府基金支持等更多的创新管理手段。近年来，中国农业保险在学习借鉴西方发达国家先进经验的同时，在实践中不断提升中国农业风险管理的创新发展能力。
［关键词］  农业保险；风险管理；创新；巨灾风险；指数保险

Some Views on Risk Management Innovation for Agricultural Insurance in China

Ba Shusong

(Development Research Center for The State Council,Beijing 100010)

Abstract：The agriculture industry is a typical risk industry for its inherent defect and uniquenessof farming operation which is accompanied by complicated risk factors. The agriculture risks are featured by large risk unit,highfrequency of occurrence,huge scale of loss and apparentregional effect. Therefore,different risk management measures should be taken when facing with different types of risks,such as yield risk,price risk and catastrophe risk. The traditional yield risk follows the law of large numbers,thus can be diversified and defused by accumulating mass risk units. However,the price risk and catastrophe risk should be diversified and defused by more innovative means,such as connecting with capital market and getting support from government fund. In recent years,learning the advanced experiences of western countries,the Chinese agriculture insurance industry is continuouslyimproving its innovativedevelopmentcapability for risk management.
Key words：agriculture insurance;risk management;innovation;catastrophe risk;index insurance

巴曙松在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

巨灾债券对投资组合分时期影响的实证分析

基于资产负债管理的我国巨灾再保险定价研究

邢天才  康晗彬

(东北财经大学金融学院，辽宁 大连 116025)

［摘  要］  我国是自然灾害种类多、频率高、损失大的国家。对巨灾保险需求很大，但是由于巨灾的特性，给保险公司带来的风险极大，因此对巨灾再保险有很大需求。通过建立资产、负债和利率模型，根据我国洪水、暴雨损失程度和频率拟合关系式，采用蒙特卡罗模拟分别计算有无违约风险和发行巨灾债券的巨灾再保险费率。通过计算结果看出，发行巨灾债券能够降低违约风险，提高巨灾再保险费率，增加巨灾再保险合同的价值。同时，还考虑了资产负债比、免赔额、债券价值与负债占比对巨灾再保险费率的影响并得到合理结果。本文根据我国洪水、暴雨实际发生情况，从资产负债管理视角研究巨灾再保险定价问题，对于开展适合中国国情的巨灾再保险具有理论指导意义。
［关键词］  资产负债管理；巨灾再保险；巨灾债券；蒙特卡罗模拟

A Study on Catastrophe Reinsurance Pricing in China Based on Asset-liability Management

Xing Tiancai,Kang Hanbin

(Institute of Finance of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian,Liaoning 116025)

Abstract：Due to high frequency and great losses of natural disasters occurred in China,catastrophe insurance is in great demand. However,catastrophes are very risky for insurance companies,therefore the demand for catastrophe reinsurance is also quite large. This paper focused on the calculation of catastrophe reinsurance pricing in China based on assetliability management and frequency/loss distribution of floods and storms in China. For this purpose,assetliability model was applied,and the catastrophe reinsurance rates were evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation with consideration of no default risk and the issue of catastrophe bondsrespectively. The simulation results showed that issuing catastrophe bonds was beneficial in improving catastrophe reinsurance rates,as well as in reducing the default risk. Besides,the effects of asset/liability ratio,deductible,ratio of catastrophe bond amount to the reinsurer\'s liabilities on the catastrophe reinsurance pricing were also taken into account. This study can provide theoretical reference for China’s catastrophe reinsurance pricing
Key words：assetliability management;catastrophe reinsurance pricing;catastrophe bonds;MonteCarlo simulation

邢天才在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

我国保险文化与保险教育问题探讨                                 

我国产险公司最低资本标准探讨

高洪忠  王  珣  唐  青

（中央财经大学中国精算研究院，北京 100081）

［摘  要］  以产险公司保障型业务的保险风险为研究对象，采用VaR作为风险度量技术对保险风险进行量化分析。对《保险法》下的产险公司偿付能力要求进行分析，给出了《保险法》下的产险公司最低资本标准。采用产险公司最新经验数据，对当前偿付能力监管规定的最低资本标准进行分析，确定如何选用保费指数和赔付指数计算最低资本，并对2011年度各公司的计算方式进行评析。基于我国产险公司最新经验数据，分析了当前偿付能力最低资本标准的合理性，并给出产险公司最低资本的新标准。
［关键词］  偿付能力；最低资本；保险风险

An Empirical Study on Minimum Capital Requirement for Chinese P&C Insurers

Gao Hongzhong,Wang Xun,Tang Qing

(China Institute for Actuarial Science of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081)

Abstract：The paper analyzed insurance risks for protection type of P&C insurance businesses in China,usingthe Value at Risk (VaR) as the risk measure. By analyzing the solvency levels of P&C companiesunder the regulation of the Insurance Law,it arrived at the minimum capital requirements (MCR) for these companies. Using experience data of P&C companies,it also analyzed MCRs in line with the solvency regulations and determined how to calculate the MCR usingpremium index and the claim index. Then it assessed the MCR calculation methods adopted by all Chinese P&C insurance companies in 2011. On the basis of the latest experience data,the paper analyzedthe adequacyof the current solvency standard of MCR,and put forward a new MCRstandard for P&C insurance industry
Key words：solvency;MCR;insurance Risk

高洪忠在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

退保率指标的合理性分析及调整研究

基于广义线性模型的我国投资型寿险产品退保率实证研究

保险公司次级债风险及监管研究

航空旅客意外伤害险持续性发展研究

个案准备金计提方法介绍

我国财产保险需求影响因素研究
——基于地区加权和时间加权的面板数据

赵红梅  苏慧娟

（南开大学经济学院数量经济研究所,天津 300071）

［摘  要］  通过构建省级面板数据的个体(时间)固定效应模型，从不同个体（时间）对应的不同的截距项出发，求取地区差异权重和时间差异权重。对经权重调整后的面板数据进行逐步回归，分析影响财产险需求的因素。结果显示考虑地区差异的话，影响财产险需求的因素分别为人均可支配收入、固定资产投资以及人口总量；考虑时间差异的话，影响财产险需求的因素分别为固定资产投资金额、交通事故直接损失金额、火灾事故直接损失金额以及受教育程度。
［关键词］  财产保险; 面板数据; 地区加权; 时间加权

A Research on Influencing Factors for Property Insurance Demands in China
-Based on region-weighted and time-weighted panel data

Zhao Hongmei,Su Huijuan

(Institute of Quantitative Economics,School of Economics,NankaiUniveristy,Tianjin 300071)

Abstract：This paper tried to calculate the regional weight and time weight through constructing the individual and time fixed effect model for China\'s provincial panel data. The different intercept terms from the model were used as the base of calculating the weights. Then the panel data was adjusted according to the regional weight and time weight. We used the adjusted panel data to do the stepwise regression and analyze the influencing factors for the demand of property insurance in China. The results showed that,if considering the regional differences,the influencing factors for the demand of property insurance were disposable income per person,fixed asset investment and population. If considering the time differences,the influencing factors became fixed asset investment,direct loss amount of traffic accident,direct loss amount of fire accident and the education level.
Key words：property insurance; panel data; regional weight; time weight   

非寿险保险合同负债计量的演进与比较
——基于中国上市产险公司准则转换数据

王宏岩1，2  薛  鲁3

（1中央财经大学会计学院，北京 100081；2中国财产再保险股份有限公司，北京 100033；3中国建设银行股份有限公司，北京 100033）

［摘  要］  保险合同负债的计量是保险会计的一大世界性难题。日前在国际保险会计领域正进行一次重大变革，公允价值计量将全面引入保险合同负债计量。通过对美国公认会计准则、美国监管会计准则、国际会计准则以及欧洲偿付能力二号等有关保险合同负债计量方法的比较，能够反映出相关会计理念的演进过程。同时，从中国上市保险公司披露的真实数据出发，可以分析几种计量方法所带来的实际影响，并对公允价值计量的使用做出警示。
［关键词］  非寿险；保险合同；负债；公允价值

Evolution and Comparison of Measurements of Liabilities of Nonlife Insurance Contracts
—Based on the Data of Public Chinese Property Insurance Companies

Wang Hongyan1,2,Xu Lu3

(1. School of Accountancy of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;2. China Property & Casualty Reinsurance Company Ltd.,Beijing 100033;3. China Construction Bank Co. Ltd. Beijing 100033)

Abstract：Measurement of liabilities of insurance contracts is an international difficult problem for insurance accounting. Currently,the international insurance accounting society is undertaking a major reform of introducing the fair value concept into the measurement of insurance contractliabilities. The article compared theinsurance contractliabilitiesmeasurementsin US GAAP,SAP,IFRS and EU SolvencyⅡto reflect the evolution of the relevant accounting concepts. Meanwhile,this article,based on the data disclosed by Chinese public insurance companies,analyzed the actual effects of these measurements and provided warnings as to the application offair valuemeasurement.
Key words： nonlifeinsurance;insurance contract;liability;fair value

基于连续时间动态模型的投资型寿险需求研究

毕泗锋1  王岱峥2

(1 山东财经大学金融学院，山东 济南 250014;2西南大学经济管理学院，重庆　400715)

［摘  要］  在寿险需求文献的基础上，构建一个投资型寿险需求的连续时间动态模型。新模型将投资型寿险分解为定期寿险与一种投资品的结合，其中用以购买定期寿险的保费减少了财富存量，而用以投资的保费则增加了财富水平。在给定初始财富、死亡率、利率、时间偏好、风险偏好、投资型寿险平均收益以及风险方差等条件下，给出了CRRA效用函数下投资型寿险需求的均衡显式解。使用比较动态模型方法，进一步探讨了各参变量对投资型寿险需求的影响效应。
［关键词］  投资型寿险；需求；连续时间动态模型

Analysis of Investmenttype Life Insurance Demand Based on Continuoustime Dynamic Model

Bi Sifeng1   wang dai zheng2

(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014)

Abstract：Based on the existing literature,this paper constructed a continuoustime dynamic model to study the investmenttype life insurance demand. In the model,we viewed investmenttype life insurance as the combination of term life insurance and an investment tool. The premium for term insurance was assumed to decrease the wealth,while the premium for investment part increased the wealth. Given initial wealth,mortal rate,market interest,time preference,risk aversion,return and risk of investmenttype life insurance,this paper provided the solution under the CRRAutility function form. Furtherwith the comparative dynamic method,this paper examined the effects of exogenous variables on investmenttype life insurance demand.
Key words：investment life insurance;demand;continuous-time dynamic model

国际商业健康保险发展与医疗体系绩效研究

锁凌燕1  完颜瑞云2

(1北京大学经济学院，北京 100871；2西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130)

［摘  要］  国际社会普遍认为引入市场化的保险机构参与医疗体系的费用控制技术创新和机制创新，对提高医疗体系的效率水平有显著作用，但理论界尚未为其提供足够的依据。基于这种认识，本文希望能够较为全面地检视国际医疗体系中商业健康保险的发展情况及其对医疗体系绩效的作用，从而为政策制定提供更坚实的理论根据。对OECD国家的考察发现，近些年来商业健康保险呈现出不断深化发展的趋势，这对各国医疗体系绩效存在显著的正向影响；此外，公共全民医疗保障体系的存在会显著改善医疗体系绩效，暗示商业健康保险作用的发挥必然是以良好的公私合作为前提的。
［关键词］  医疗体系；绩效考察；DEA分析；商业健康保险

The Development of Private Health Insurance and Performance of the Health Care System:
an Empirical Study on International Experiences

Suo Lingyan1,Wanyan Ruiyun2

(1. School of Economics Peking University,Beijing 100871;2. The School of Insurance of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 611130)

Abstract： It is widely agreed in the international health care circles that private insurers are keener on health care management and cost control and thus are helpful to promote the performance of the overall health care system via innovation. But to date there is little theoretical evidence to support this point of view. This article tried to explore internationally the role of private health insurance (PHI) in health care systems and find out the value of PHI. Thorough examination of the experience of OECD countries revealed the trend of PHI deepening was significantly positive to the improvement of performance of health care systems. And the existence of universal public health security programs contributed greatly to an efficient health care system,which meant well-organized public-private partnership (PPP)was essential to take full advantage of PHI.
Key words：health care system;performance study;DEA analysis;private health insurance

锁凌燕在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

保险市场逆向选择的信号传递博弈研究

综合风险管理：“十二五”的新命题

中国保险业声誉风险管理研究

英美医疗保险体系比较研究及对中国的启示

保险市场开放的经验与面临的新问题

论我国洪水保险的模式选择与机制设计

完颜瑞云在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

保险企业质量成本管理实证分析

中国少数民族地区保险业发展的现状探析——以民族和宗教因素为视角

我国保险排除度空间差异及其影响因素研究

张艳萍

(中央财经大学保险学院，北京 100081)

［摘  要］  运用2011年的数据对我国保险排除度进行了测算，并分析了造成各个省份保险排除度空间差异的主要原因。根据保险排除程度指标IIE计算结果表明：在我国31个省市中存在着不同程度的保险排除，742%的省份遭受了严重的保险排除，129%的遭受了中度保险排除。最后，应用Tobit模型分析得出，影响我国保险排除程度的主要因素是经济繁荣程度、年龄结构、教育水平。
［关键词］  保险排除；空间差异；Tobit模型

Geographical Difference in Insurance Exclusion Rate in China and Affecting Factors

Zhang Yanping

(Insurance School of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081)

Abstract：The paper used 2011 data to project the insurance exclusion rates in China,and analyzed the reasons for the differences of exclusion rates in different provinces. The IIE results showed that there were different exclusion rates in 31 provinces,among which 74.2% provinces met with a high level of exclusion rates,and 12.9% a medium level. With the help of the Tobit model,the paper arrived at the conclusion that economic prosperity,age structure and educational level were major factors affecting insurance exclusion rates.
Key words： insurance exclusion;geographical difference;Tobit model  

北京市农业区域产量保险研究

朱俊生1  赵  乐2  初  萌3

(1首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院，北京 100070；2北京市农委发展规划处，北京 100053；3首都经济贸易大学金融学院，北京 100070)

［摘  要］  根据农业区域产量保险的运行机理及其发挥优势的前提条件，考察了北京市试验农业区域产量保险的意义、条件及其障碍，并结合国际上农业区域产量保险的运行状况，对合同作出了初步设计。
［关键词］  区域产量保险；合同设计；北京农业保险

Feasibility of Area-based Crop Yield InsuranceinBeijing

Zhu Junsheng1,Zhal Le2,Chu Meng3

(1School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing100070；
2Department of Development and Planning,Rural Affairs Committee of BeijingBeijing100053；
3School of Finance ofCapital University of Economics and Business,Beijing100070)

Abstract：The paper discussed the operation mechanism and prerequisite of area-based crop yield insurance,and analyzedthe potential advantages and disadvantages of the pilot area-based crop yield insurance in Beijing. It also suggested a tentative design of the contract on the base of international experiences related to area-based crop yield insurance
Key words：feasibility;contract design;area-based crop yield insurance

朱俊生在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

论中国渔业互保协会的运作模式及其完善

中国天气指数保险试点的运行及其评估——以安徽省水稻干旱和高温热害指数保险为例

公私合作视角下中国农业保险的发展

我国保险业发展评价指标探析

我国发达地区政策性农业保险试验的比较制度分析

我国保险业空间布局研究

论当前保险发展与风险防范——从“保险泡沫论”说起

论国有保险公司产权改革的新路径

保险费率市场化的时机已经成熟——与《近期内不宜实行保险费率市场化》一文的商榷

赵乐在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

论政策性农业保险制度的建立

消费者寿险购买意愿相关因素实证分析

于凌云1  张凯伦2

（1西南交通大学公共管理学院，四川 成都 610031；2西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130）

［摘  要］  结合我国实际调查数据对消费者寿险购买意愿进行了实证分析，其结果显示：社会公众对人寿保险公司服务管理的满意度会涉及寿险公司形象及其投资管理等方面，并对消费者寿险购买的意愿产生直接和间接的影响。这一结果表明，人寿保险公司不仅要努力提高在市场中的服务满意度，更为重要的是要加强投资风险管理并增强自身实力，从而有利于扩大寿险业务规模，提高其在市场中的占有率。
［关键词］  保险公司品牌；风险投资与管理；寿险购买意愿

The Empirical Research on Related Factors of Life InsuranceConsumers’ Purchase Intention

Yu Lingyun1，Zhang Kailun2

（1School of Public Administration of Southwest Jiao Tong University，Chengdu,Sichuan 610031；2The College of Insurance of SouthwestUniversity of Finance and Economics，Chengdu,Sichuan 611130）

Abstract：Based on the actual survey data,this paper conducted a research onlife consumers’ purchase intention.The results showed that the public’s satisfaction with service management was related to the image of insurance companies and investment management. These factors affected consumers’ purchase intention directly and indirectly. This showed that insurance companies need to continuously improve the services in the market and strengthen investment risk management,and in turn,expand business scales and market share
Key words：insurance company brand;investment and risk management;life consumers’ purchase intention

于凌云在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

基本公共服务均等化转移支付机制的创新研究

论鼓励企业年金发展的最优税收模式选择                            

基于OCAI量表的保险企业文化形态实证研究

杨卫华1  许月奎1  朱进元2  王秀山1

（1大连工业大学管理学院，辽宁 大连 116034；2中国保险监督管理委员会大连监管局，辽宁 大连 116023）

［摘  要］  以保险企业为调查对象，以OCAI量表为测量工具，实证研究了我国保险企业文化现有形态及未来期望形态，并从所有制类型和险种两个角度分析保险企业文化形态的差异。实证研究结果表明，目前保险企业以团队型文化为主导，兼具有层级型文化和市场型文化的特点，而创新型文化表现不足；从长远来看，保险从业人员期望仍然以团队型文化为主导，但是希望降低层级型文化特征，大幅提升创新型文化氛围；不同所有制类型的保险企业在四种文化形态表现程度上均存在差异，对团队型、市场型、层级型文化形态期望程度一致；人寿保险企业和财产保险企业在团队型文化与创新型文化的表现程度相同，在其他文化形态上的表现程度存在差异；两类保险企业在团队型文化和市场型文化形态上的变革期望相同，而在其他文化形态上的变革期望程度存在差异。
［关键词］  OCAI量表；保险；企业文化；实证研究

An Empirical Study of Insurance Industry Cultural Morphology Based on OCAI Scale

Yang Weihua1,Xu Yuekui1,Zhu Jinyuan2,WangXiushan1

（1Management School,Dalian Polytechnic University,Dalian 116034；2China Insurance Regulatory Commission Dalian Bureau,Dalian 116001）

Abstract：This study took insurance corporations as research object and adopted OCAI scale as the measuring instrument,and empirically studied the current cultural pattern and the expected cultural pattern in the future of the insurance industry in China. Also,based on the ownership types and insurance business line perspectives,the differences of cultural patterns of insurance companies were discussed. The empirical results show that currently insurance corporate culture tends to be the teamwork pattern,together with some characteristics of hierarchic and market patterns,but lacking innovative pattern. In the long run,employees of insurance industry expect the dominant culture type will still be the teamwork pattern,but should reduce the characteristics of hierarchic pattern and enhance the innovative atmosphere greatly. There exists a difference between four culture patterns for insurance corporations with different ownerships,and there is a similar expectation for the teamwork,market and hierarchic culture patterns. Life insurance companies and property insurance companies have similarity between teamwork and innovative cultural patterns,but have differences between other cultural patterns. There also exists a similarity in expectation of the temwork and market culture patterns for the two types of insurance companies,and a difference in the other two culture patterns.
Key words：OCAI scale;insurance;corporate culture;empirical study

朱进元在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

不断丰富保险文化内涵打造行业科学发展的文化支撑

保险进社区：一种值得推广的新型营销模式

重新认识风险这个概念

谢志刚  周  晶

（上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433）

［摘  要］  通过比较和分析中国保监会、国际标准化组织（ISO）以及其他国内外权威机构和研究文献中关于风险的定义，对照保险经营实践所提供的经验，在风险决策的理论和研究框架下，先定义不确定性并界定它与风险概念之间的关系，进而界定了风险概念的构成要素，通过分析各要素之间的影响关系来揭示风险的形成机制和动态特征，并重新定义了风险概念。新定义下，风险分类和风险度量的内在含义以及不同分类和度量模型间的逻辑关系变得十分清晰，为保险公司进行内部全面风险管理和外部保险监管提的理论基础提供了参考。
［关键词］  不确定性；风险；全面风险管理；保险监管

Restudy and Understand the Fundamental Concept of Risk

Xie Zhigang,Zhou Jing

（Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433）

Abstract：Comparing the definitions of risk given by China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC),the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and other authoritative institutionsand research references,and also referring to best practice of insurance operations,this paper studied the fundamental concept of risk in the theoretical framework of decision making under risk and uncertainty. By defining the concept of uncertainty and then identifying its relation to the concept of risk,and by analyzing the components of risk concept and their relationships,this study revealed the formation mechanism of risk and its dynamic characteristics. It then refined the concept of risk,which clarified the intrinsic meaningof risk classificationandrisk measurement models. It may provide a theoretical research reference both for insurers\' Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and for insurance regulation and supervision
Key words：uncertainty;risk;ERM;insurance regulation and supervision

谢志刚在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

我国第二代偿付能力监管制度体系建设中的几个关键问题

中国精算师资格考试（非寿险）课程体系初探

我国非寿险最低偿付能力资本要求的计算比较

论建立我国产险精算师职业制度

论建立我国保险业精算教育培训体系

周晶在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：

驾驶员动视力在车险定价中的应用研究

福利制度对欧盟国家债务危机的影响及启示

林  义  陈加旭

(西南财经大学保险与社会保障研究中心，四川 成都 610074)

［摘  要］  分别从政府债务、宏观经济和福利制度模式等三个方面考察了欧盟国家福利制度对其国家债务形成的影响，认为福利制度本身不应该成为导致欧盟国家债务危机的主要原因。虽然欧盟国家福利水平普遍较高，但并不是近年来欧盟各国债务迅速扩大的关键因素。其次，福利水平的高低与一国的宏观经济发展和国家竞争力也不存在直接联系，但一国的福利模式与政策指向却能够影响一国的经济发展。最后提出了完善我国社会保障制度的建议。
［关键词］  福利国家；债务危机；福利水平；福利模式

The Influence of the Welfare System on European Debt Crisisand Its Implications

Lin Yi,Chen Jiaxu

(Insurance and Social Security Research Center of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu,Sichuan 610074)

Abstract：The paper analyzed the influence of the European welfare system on the formation of the national debt from the three aspects of government debt,macro economy and welfare system mode. The paper held that welfare system was not the main reason for the European debt crisis. Although the European Union member countries all enjoyed a high level of social welfare,it was not the key reason for the debt expansion in the recent years. Moreover,the welfare level didn’t have any direct relationship with the development of macro economy and national competitiveness of a country. However,the welfare system mode and policy trend could influence the economic development of the country. In the end,the paperrevealed the implication forperfecting the social security system of China
Key words： welfare nation;debt crisis;welfare level;welfare mode

林义在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：

老龄化背景下私营养老金计划的新发展——兼谈保险公司介入私营养老金计划的国际经验

养老保险制度改革与政府预算管理研究

姜  岩1  张学军2

(1中央财经大学财政学院，北京 100081；2武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072)

［摘  要］  中国养老保险制度面临着“碎片化”、转轨成本、人口老龄化加速等多重问题。养老保险制度改革的目标是促进经济增长和提高社会福利，它与政府预算管理相辅相成。解决制度“碎片化”和转轨成本问题，必然要同步解决政府养老保险预算的“碎片化”，并对转轨成本做出合理的预算安排。人口老龄化趋势要求政府养老保险预算要在一个更长的周期内考虑预算平衡问题。养老保险制度结构改革以及与此相匹配的政府预算改革是长期而艰巨的系统工程，其目标规划应明确而清晰，阶段步骤应稳健而有序。
［关键词］  养老保险；政府预算；经济增长；社会福利

A Research on Pension Insurance System Reform and Government Budget Management

Jiang Yan1,Zhang Xuejun2

(1. School of Public Finance of Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;
2. Economics and Management School of Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072)

Abstract：China’s pension insurance system is facing with the problems of “fragmentation”,transition cost and accelerated population aging,etc.. The goal of pension system reform is to promote economic growth and enhance social welfare,which is interconnected with government budget management. To solve the problem of institutional“fragmentation”and transition cost,we must solve the problem of“fragmentation”of government pension insurance budget concurrently,and make proper arrangement for the transition cost. The trend of population aging requires that government should consider pension budget balance over a longer cycle. The structural reform on the pension insurance system and the corresponding government budget reform is a long and arduous task. We should set down clearly defined goals and implement the reform plan in an orderly well-planned way.
Key words： pension insurance;government budget;economic growth;social welfare