相关链接：《保险研究》2012年第8期目录及摘要
我国经济发展对基本医疗保险的影响研究
肖宏伟
（中国人民大学统计学院，北京 100872）
[摘要] 通过建立面板数据模型，从不同区域经济发展、不同收入水平两个角度，分职工基本医疗保险、城镇居民基本医疗保险、新型农村合作医疗三个方面，定量研究中国经济发展对基本医疗保险的影响。研究结果显示，经济发展对基本医疗保险的发展有着积极的促进作用，但是受地区经济发展不平衡、不同收入组和城乡之间存在差异等影响，经济与基本医疗保险的持续协调发展存在一定的阻碍。我国应建立经济发展与基本医疗保险发展相协调的动态调整机制，加大对经济发展欠发达地区和低收入人群的保障力度。
[关键词] 经济发展；面板数据模型；基本医疗保险；影响
Research on Impacts of China''s Economic Development on Basic Medical Insurance
Xiao Hongwei
（School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872）
Abstract：Through the establishment of panel data model, the paper researched the impacts of Chinese economic development on the basic medical insurance systems (consisting of the basic medical insurance for employees, basic medical insurance for urban residents and the new rural cooperative medical insurance) quantitatively from the perspectives of regions with different economic development levels and different income levels. The results showed that economic development had a positive role in promoting the development of the basic medical insurance, but due to the imbalance of regional economic development, differences in the income groups and between urban and rural areas, there were some obstacles for sustained and coordinated development between economy and basic medical insurance. China should establish a coordinated dynamic adjustment mechanism between economic development and basic medical insurance development, increase efforts to protect the economic development of underdeveloped areas and lowincome populations.
Key words：economic development; panel data model; basic medical insurance; impact
我国保险业发展对经济增长的影响——基于30个省市面板数据的实证分析
潘国臣1 张媛媛2 王冰冰1
(1.武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072；2.鼎和财产保险有限公司，广东 深圳 518026）
[摘要] 基于Solow模型，采用2001年～2010年我国30个省市的面板数据分别检验了寿险业和财险业发展对经济增长的影响。采用的“保险基准深度比”指标减轻了以往计量模型中普遍存在的内生性问题，得出了寿险业和财险业均对经济增长具有显著促进作用的结论。进一步地，计量结果显示，寿险和财险基准深度比每产生一个标准差的增长，将分别促进人均GDP增长率提高0.64个百分点和0.68个百分点。实证研究结果表明，加快财产险和寿险的发展均有利于促进经济增长。
[关键词] 保险基准深度比；保险发展；经济增长
Impacts of Insurance Industry Development on Economic Growth in China——An Empirical Study with Panel Data from 30 Provinces
Pan Guochen1，Zhang Yuanyuan2，Wang Bingbing1
（1.Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Wuhan Hubei 430072; 2.DINGHE PROPERTY INSURANCE CO.,LTD., Shenzhen Guangdong 518026）
Abstract：Based on Solow model, this paper used panel data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2010 to test the impacts of development of life insurance and property insurance industries on economic growth respectively. By adopting the indicator of "Benchmark Ratio of Insurance Penetration", we reduced the commonly seen endogenous problem in the previous models. The empirical results showed that the development of both life and nonlife insurance industry did promote economic growth significantly. Further analysis showed that each standard deviation growth of the"Benchmark Ratio of Insurance Penetration" for life and nonlife insurance sectors would drive the GDP per capita to increase by 0.64 and 0.68 percentage points respectively. This study indicated that accelerating the development of life and nonlife insurance industries would be congenital to economic growth.
Key words：benchmark ratio of insurance penetration; insurance development; economic growth
潘国臣在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
发展中小保险公司对经济增长的水平效应与速度效应——基于分省面板数据的实证研究
薄滂沱1 邵全权2 江生忠2
(1.南开大学滨海学院，天津 300270；2.南开大学经济学院，天津 300071）
[摘要] 大量研究发现保险业发展可以影响经济增长，但对于保险业的结构特征和区域差异对经济增长是否有作用却鲜有涉及。本文运用中国31个省份[HTSS]（直辖市）[HTK]在1999年～2008年间的面板数据，利用固定效应模型和系统广义矩方法进行了计量分析。我们发现提高保险市场上中小保险公司的市场份额，可以有效地促进经济增长，市场份额的平方项和经济增长负相关，即中小保险公司份额和经济增长之间存在“倒U型”关系；提高寿险深度可以促进经济增长，财险深度的提高则会抑制经济增长。本文还构建了相对保险深度指标对全国样本进行分类，发现不同区域保险业结构对经济增长的影响规律存在一定的差异。
[关键词] 保险业结构；区域差异；经济增长水平；经济增长速度；相对保险深度
The Effect of Developing Smalltomedium Insurance Companies to Economic Growth Level and Speed——A study based on panel data for provinces
Bo Pangtuo1，Shao quanquan2，Jiang Shengzhong2
（1.Nankai University Binhai College, Tianjin 300270; 2. Economic School of Nankai University, Tianjin 300071）
Abstract：Many studies have revealed that insurance industry development may contribute to economic growth, but few focus on the influence of insurance structure and regional difference on economic growth. Using panel data for 31 Chinese provinces during 1999～2008, this paper used fixedeffect model and system Generalized Method of Moments to assess the effect of insurance structure and regional differences on economic growth quantitatively. The results showed the market share increase of smalltomedium insurance companies could promote economic growth, and there was a negative relation between the squared term of market share of smalltomedium insurance companies and economic growth, namely an "inverted U shaped" relationship; increasing life insurance penetration would promote economic growth, while increasing property insurance penetration would constraint economic growth. This paper also used relative insurance penetration to classify Chinese insurance markets and arrived at the conclusion that different insurance structures at different regions had different impacts on local economic growth.
Key words： insurance structure; regional difference; level of economic growth; rate of economic growth; relative insurance penetration
薄滂沱在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
邵全权在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
中国保险业对经济增长的贡献和影响——基于单方程估计和系统估计的实证研究
保险保障基金最优规模的积累规律及影响因素——基于动态视角和SYSGMM方法的研究
江生忠在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
基于VAR模型的人身保险与储蓄的联动关系
贾士彬 尚颖
（河北大学经济学院，河北 保定 071002）
[摘要] 通过VAR模型分析方法，采用2001年1月~2012年4月的月度数据，研究在通货膨胀和利率因素的干扰下，我国人身保险与储蓄的联动关系。实证结果表明，通货膨胀和利率调整均加大了人身保险业发展难度。短期来看，人身保险和储蓄替代效应更明显，人们更倾向于选择储蓄方式应对未来的不确定性，抑制了对人身保险的需求；但长期看，人身保险与储蓄则表现为同方向互动发展。可见，人身保险与储蓄之间的联动关系是复杂的。但总体上讲，人身保险与储蓄之间存在着长期协整关系。
[关键词] 人身保险; 储蓄; VAR模型; 替代效应; 收入效应
Research on the Interactive Relationship between Life Insurance and Savings under the VAR Model
Jia Shibin, Shang Ying
（The College of Economics of Hebei University, Baoding Hebei 071002）
Abstract：Based on the monthly time series data from January 2001 to April 2012, this paper studied the relationship between life insurance and savings under the interference of inflation and interest rates in China, using VAR model. The empirical result showed that inflation and interest rate adjustment increased the difficulty of life insurance developments. In the short term, the substitution effect would be more obvious between life insurance and savings, and people were more inclined to choose savings to deal with the uncertainty of the future which restricted the demand for life insurance. In the long term, life insurance and savings would develop in the same direction. To conclude, life insurance and savings had a complex relationship, but generally speaking, there existed a cointegration relationship between them.
Key words：life insurance; savings; VAR model; substitution effect; income effect
贾士彬在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国寿险产品结构调整的影响因素分析——基于公司微观层面的实证分析
尚颖在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析
中国寿险产品结构调整的影响因素分析——基于公司微观层面的实证分析
我国长期护理保险体系建设的运营模式选择
盛和泰
（中国人民保险集团股份有限公司，北京 100084）
[摘要] 近年来，我国老龄人口的长期护理刚性需求不断增加。但是，受家庭护理功能弱化、社保保障内容有限、长期护理费用较高等因素制约，长期护理保障供需不平衡的矛盾愈发突出。本文对常见的长期护理保险运营方式——政府主办型、市场主导型以及政府引导并委托专业机构运营型进行比较，分析表明，政府引导并委托专业机构运营的方式，可更充分发挥各参与主体优势，降低制度推进成本，减轻公共财政负担，提高制度运行效率，满足居民多样化的长期护理保障需求，符合我国经济发展水平不高、老龄居民消费能力有限的实际国情。
[关键词] 保险机构；长期护理；社会保险
Operational Model Options for Longterm Care Insurance System in China
Sheng Hetai
（The People''s Insurance Company of China, Beijing 100084）
Abstract：Longterm care demands are increasing constantly among aged people in China in recent years. However, the mismatch between supply and demands of longterm care is getting more and more acute due to the weakened function of home care, limited services of the social security system and the high expense of commercial longterm care. The paper made a comparison of common longterm care operation models:governmentled model, marketled model and governmentled model with specialized thirdparty administration. The comparison showed that by enlisting specialized thirdparty administration, the governmentled model could fully mobilize the strength of all parties involved, reduce the rollingout cost, lower fiscal burden, increase operational efficiency of the system, and meet diversified needs, therefore, it was a model fitting with the specific situation of China where economic development level were not very high and people''s consumption capability were still limited.
Key words：insurance institutions; longterm care; social insurance
盛和泰在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
上海培育航运再保险市场研究
李新伟
（上海海事大学经济管理学院，上海 201306）
[摘要] 针对上海航运再保险市场的国际差距以及当前发展现状，采用实地调研、对比分析与对策研究相结合的方法进行研究，指出上海国际航运中心建设中作为航运保险的配套，亟需一个完善、发达的航运再保险市场，并对上海培育航运再保险市场的可行性进行了论证，提出了上海培育航运再保险市场的构建方案和所需突破的政策，为我国各航运中心建设提供借鉴。
[关键词] 航运再保险；构建方案；航运中心
A Study on Shanghai''s Policy for Cultivating Shipping Reinsurance Market
Li Xinwei
（School of Economics and Management of Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306）
Abstract：In view of the gap between Shanghai shipping reinsurance market and the international market and its current development situation, the paper employed field investigation, comparative analysis and countermeasure research methods to study Shanghai′s relevant policies. It pointed out that for the construction of Shanghai international shipping center as shipping insurance facilities, Shanghai needed a welldeveloped shipping reinsurance market. Then the paper demonstrated the feasibility for Shanghai to build up the shipping reinsurance market, put forward suggestions on the construction plan and the policy breakthrough to be made. It provided reference for China''s shipping center construction.
Key words：shipping reinsurance; construction plan; shipping center
保险资金运用对投资和经济增长的贡献研究
李香雨 程鹏
（吉林大学商学院，吉林 长春 130012）
[摘要] 以新金融发展理论为基础，详细分析保险促进投资的机制作用，包括保险如何对储蓄—投资转化比例产生影响，如何对资本配置效率产生影响等两个方面。同时，运用2001年～2010年我国GDP、固定资产投资额和保险资金运用余额的季度数据，实证分析我国保险资金运用对投资和GDP的影响，结果显示，保险投资不论长期还是短期都会对经济和投资产生积极影响。
[关键词] 保险；投资；经济增长
The Contribution of Insurance Fund Utilization to Investment and Economic Growth
Li Xiangyu，Cheng Peng
（Business School of Jilin University, Changchun Jilin 130012）
Abstract：Based on the theory of new finance development, the paper analyzed the mechanism effect of insurance promoting investment, including the impact of insurance on savings investment conversion ratio, and the impact on capital allocation efficiency. Using the quarterly data of China''s GDP, fixed asset investment amount and insurance fund investment balance during the period of 2001～2010, the paper conducted an empirical analysis on the impacts of insurance fund investment on investment and GDP, which supported the viewpoint that, insurance fund investment either for longterm or shortterm purpose could promote economic growth and investment.
Key words： insurance; investment; economic growth
我国政策性科技保险的最优补贴规模研究
黄英君1 赵雄1 蔡永清2
(1.重庆大学经济与工商管理学院，重庆 400030；2.中国建设银行天津市分行，天津 300203）
[摘要] 通过分析我国科技保险的发展现状及面临的主要问题，认为科技保险的发展应以政府支持为基础，实施政策性科技保险，并从科技保险的市场失灵现象以及财政补贴对科技保险的效应两个方面为政策性科技保险的财政补贴提供理论依据。同时，选取北京、重庆、武汉三个试点地区分析我国政策性科技保险的补贴模式，并运用机制设计理论建立信息激励模型，引入可观测变量以扩大政策性科技保险市场的信息透明度，对保险公司经营科技保险提供激励约束相容的财政补贴，从而确定政策性科技保险市场中的政府财政补贴的适度性规模。最后，从财政补贴和激励机制方面对我国科技保险提出了相关政策建议。
[关键词] 政策性科技保险；政府支持；最优补贴规模
Research on the Optimal Subsidy Scale of Policyoriented Technology Insurance in China
Huang Yingjun1,Zhao Xiong1,Cai Yongqing2
（1.School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030;2.China Construction Bank Tianjin Branch,Tianjin 300203）
Abstract：Through analyzing the present situation and main problems of technology insurance in China,this article indicated that China should implement policyoriented technology insurance based on government support,and provided theoretical support from market failure and the effect of financial subsidies in policyoriented technology insurance market.The article selected Beijing,Chongqing,and Wuhan to analyze technology insurance′s subsidy mode in our country,and established an information incentive model according to mechanism design theories.It suggested that the observable variables should be introduced to expand information transparency in technology insurance market,and financial subsidy containing both incentives and constraints should be provided to insurance companies.On the basis of these operations,we could decide the endogenous optimal financial subsidy scale in the policyoriented technology insurance market.Finally,it proposed relevant policy recommendations about financial subsidy and incentive mechanism for the development of technology insurance in our country.
Key words：PolicyOriented Insurance; government support; optimal subsidy scale
黄英君在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
中国保险业发展与经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析
蔡永清在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
《农业保险条例》几个问题的看法
何文炯 施红 张跃华
（浙江大学公共管理学院，浙江 杭州 310027）
[摘要] 本文对《农业保险条例》征求意见稿中有关农业保险目标、定义及农业保险经办主体及运作方面的若干问题进行了深入的分析，并提出修改建议。
[关键词] 农业保险条例；问题；探讨
Issues on Agricultural Insurance Act
He Wenjiong, Shi Hong, Zhang Yuehua
（College of Public Administration Zhejiang University, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310027）
Abstract：The paper put forward modification proposals on clauses regarding objective, definition and operation of agriculture insurance in the "Agricultural Insurance Act" (for comment version).
Key words：agricultural insurance act； issues；analysis
何文炯在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
施红在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
张跃华在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
社会和谐、保险发展与人才培养——第四届中国保险教育论坛综述
完善处理交强险案件的法律规则之我见——从最高人民法院《关于审理道路交通事故损害赔偿案件适用法律若干问题的解释（征求意见稿）》谈起
贾林青
（中国人民大学法学院，北京 100872）
[摘要] 机动车交通事故责任强制保险在全国范围内适用至今的6年以来，始终为社会公众所关注，尤其是有关交强险案件的审理更是热点话题。因此，出于提高处理交强险案件的司法裁判水准的需要，最高人民法院制定相应的法律规则便意义重大。不过，笔者解读了其发布的《关于审理道路交通事故损害赔偿案件适用法律若干问题的解释[HTSS]（征求意见稿）[HTK]》，感觉尚有诸多需要完善之处，因此，借助本文，分别从交强险和商业第三者责任保险的适用关系，被保险人与投保人各自在交强险中的法律地位，交强险与侵权责任制度之间的适用关系，交强险与《保险法》的适用关系等四个方面，阐述个人的看法，以便促进有关处理交强险的法律规则的完善。
[关键词] 完善；处理；交强险案件；法律规则
My View on Perfecting Rules of Dealing with Cases of Mandatory Motor Vehicle Traffic Liability Insurance
——To Begin with the Interpretation of Application of Law for Trying Cases of Traffic Accident Damages Compensation（Opinion Soliciting Draft）of the Supreme Court
Jia Linqing
（Renmin University of China Law School, Beijing 100872）
Abstract：Mandatory Motor Vehicle Traffic Liability Insurance has captured quite some public attention since it was applied six years ago, especially the trial of cases of mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability. Therefore, to enhance the level of judicial judgment, it is of great significance that the Supreme Court has made corresponding rules. However, the author holds that it still has a lot to improve on the Interpretation of Application of Law for Trying Cases of Traffic Accident Damages Compensation（Opinion Soliciting Draft） . In order to promote the perfection of rules dealing with mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability insurance, the author offered his personal opinion on the following four aspects in the paperthe application relationship between mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability insurance and commercial thirdparty liability insurance, the legal status of the applicant and the insured, the application relationship between mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability insurance and tort liability system, and the application relationship between mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability insurance and Insurance Law.
Key words：perfection; dealing with; cases of mandatory motor vehicle traffic liability insurance; legal rule
贾林青在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
保险消费者权益问题的思考
中国保监会保险消费者权益保护局课题组
[摘要] 法律制度是保险消费者权益保护工作的基础和核心。与一般消费者概念相比，“保险消费者”概念有着独特的内涵与外延。保险消费者权益主要有知情权、公平交易权、选择权、求偿权、安全权、隐私权等。由于保险消费者权益是一个新的法制领域，仍存在一些不足之处，如对保险消费者概念不甚明确，保险消费者权益表达不甚完整，保险消费者受教育权的立法层级不高，保险消费者的监督权未在法规中明示，保险消费者的隐私权未涵盖个人信息，保险消费者权益概括不甚集中等方面，有待进一步完善。
[关键词] 保险消费者权益；知情权；公平交易权；选择权；求偿权；安全权；隐私权
The Legal Interpretation on Insurance Consumers'' Rights and Interests
CIRC Research Team 5 for Insurance Consumer Rights and Interests Protection
Abstract：The legal system is the essential basis for protecting insurance consumers'' rights and interests. In comparison with the general concept of consumer, the concept of "insurance consumer" has specific connotation and extension. The rights and interests of insurance consumers refer to the right to information, the right to fair deals, the right of choice, the right of claim, the right to safety and the privacy right, etc. Indeed, insurance consumers'' rights and interests are a new legal arena, therefore there are still some inadequacies in relation to this concept, namely, the concept itself remains to be better defined, insurance consumer''s rights and interests haven''t been fully expressed, the importance of insurance consumers'' right to education hasn''t been fully recognized legislatively, insurance consumer''s right of supervision isn''t explicitly ensured legislatively, insurance consumer''s right to privacy hasn''t extended to personal data, and the components of insurance consumer rights and interests haven''t been unified, etc.
Key words：insurance consumers'' rights and interests; the right to information; the right to fair deals; the right of choice; the right of claim; the right to safety; the privacy right
公共场所火灾公众责任风险保障机制研究
赵尚梅 顾国学
（北京航空航天大学经济管理学院，北京 100191）
[摘要] 中国公共场所火灾公众责任保险投保率低，公共场所一旦发生重特大火灾，通常由政府承担灾后赔偿责任，这不仅使得公共经营场所业主逃脱了民事赔偿责任，而且对纳税人有失公平。本文首先提出并论证公共场所火灾公众责任险的准公共物品属性，为公共场所火灾公众责任险模式的选择奠定了理论基础；其次从社会福利的角度分析了强制投保优于自由投保模式；再次本文基于我国保险业仍处在寡头垄断阶段和法律监管不完善、理论上我国还完全具备形成价格卡特尔条件的现实，提出了初级阶段实施“强制投保、有管理的差别费率”模式，待条件成熟再逐步放松管制；最后基于准公共物品属性和合作经济学思想，提出了“商业保险公司和地方及中央政府三级联防”的运行机制。
[关键词] 火灾公众责任保险；准公共物品；强制投保；差别费率管制；三级联防
Research on Security Mechanism of the Public Fire Liability Insurance
Zhao Shangmei,Gu Guoxue
（School of Economics and Management Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191）
Abstract：The coverage ratio of public fire liability insurance in China is very low. In case a fire occurs in a public place and the responsible party loses the capacity of compensation, the government often has to bear the compensation responsibility. As a result, the operator at the public place escapes from the civil compensation liability, which is unfair to taxpayers. Therefore, researching on the patterns and mechanisms of public fire liability insurance is of great significance. In this article, it firstly expounded on the quasi public goods nature of public fire liability insurance, laying the theoretic foundation for selecting the suitable model; secondly , it analyzed the necessity for compulsory insurance from the social welfare angle; then, it proposed and justified the model of "compulsory liability insurance and floating rate with regualtion" according to the property of quasi public goods ; finally, based on its quasi public goods property and cooperative economics, it put forth the threelayer defense mechanism made up of the central government，local government and commercial insurance companies.
Key words：public fire liability insurance; quasi public goods; compulsory insurance; regulation of differential rate;threelayer defense
赵尚梅在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
存款保险制度国际规范之比较研究
谢世清 莫太平
（北京大学经济学院，北京 100871）
[摘要] 针对如何建立有效的存款保险制度，一些著名国际机构相继提出了一系列规范准则。其中，最具代表性的包括欧盟（EU）的《存款保险计划指令》、国际货币基金组织（IMF）的《存款保险制度最佳实践原则》、金融稳定论坛（FSF）的《有效存款保险指南》以及国际存款保险协会（IADI）和巴塞尔银行监管委员会（BCBS）联合发布的《有效存款保险制度核心原则》。本文在简要介绍这4份国际规范的基础上，重点对其内容进行了比较分析，以寻求关于我国建设存款保险制度的启示。
[关键词] 存款保险；国际规范；金融安全网；核心原则
A Comparative Study on International Norms of Deposit Insurance Systems
Xie Shiqing, Mo Taiping
（School of Economics of Peking University, Beijing 100871）
Abstract：Several international institutions introduced the norms regarding how to establish an efficient deposit insurance system, the most representative ones including EU Directive on Deposit Guarantee Schemes, IMF Deposit InsuranceActual and Good Practices, FSF Guidance for Developing Effective Deposit Insurance Systems, and IADI and BCBS Core Principles for Effective Deposit Insurance Systems. Having briefly introduced these four norms, this paper made a comparative analysis among them, and sought for policy implications on how to build an effective deposit insurance system in China.
Key words：deposit insurance system; international norms; financial safety net; core principles
谢世清在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
淮河流域洪水保险共同体构建研究——基于皖苏鲁豫四省政府层面
李加明 王昊
（安徽财经大学风险评估与控制研究院，安徽 蚌埠 233030）
[摘要] 淮河流域洪水灾害频繁，给流域人民带来严重的经济损失，借鉴国际经验可知，洪水保险是分散洪水风险的有效手段。本文主要论述将淮河流域四个省联合起来，组成一个保险共同体开展洪水保险，这对解决淮河洪水风险问题具有理论与实际指导意义。
[关键词] 淮河流域；洪水保险；保险共同体
A Study on Establishing a Flood Insurance Community along the Huaihe River——At the provincial level of Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Shandong provinces
Li Jiaming,Wang Hao
（Risk Assessment and Control Research Institute of Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu Anhui 233030）
Abstract：Because of frequent flooding, people along the Huaihe river have suffered from serious economic losses. Drawing on international experiences, the flood insurance is an effective means for spreading flood risks. This paper mainly discussed on how to form an insurance community among Anhui province, Jiangsu province, Henan province and Shandong province to carry out flood insurance, which is deemed of theoretical and practical significance to solve the flood risks along the Huaihe River.
Key words：the Huaihe river valley; flood insurance; insurance community
李加明在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
保险体系的系统风险相关性评价：一个国际视角
赵桂芹1 吴洪2
(1.上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433；2.深圳大学经济学院，广东 深圳 518060）
[摘要] 保险体系会引发系统性风险吗？本文从国际保险业发展的现实状况和未来发展趋势出发，通过分析保险行业的系统重要性和保险公司主要业务活动的系统风险相关性，从宏观层面和微观层面两个角度，判断保险体系引发系统性风险的可能性。我们发现，总体上当前保险业引发系统性风险的可能性不大；但随着保险公司业务创新的进一步推进，保险业引发系统性风险的可能性在逐渐增加，其中保险公司的短期融资和表外衍生品交易业务，是引发系统性风险可能性较大的业务。我们还对中国保险业系统性风险的宏观审慎监管提出了政策建议。
[关键词] 保险体系；系统性风险；宏观审慎监管
Evaluation of Systematic Risk in the Insurance System: An International Perspective
Zhao Guiqin1，Wu Hong2
（1.School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433; 2. Business School, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Guangdong 518060）
Abstract：Does insurance system pose systemic risk? Based on the present situation and the future development trends of international insurance industry, this paper analyzed the systematical importance of the insurance industry and systematical relativity of mainstream insurance business, and assessed the possibility of insurance system posing systematic risks from macroscopic and microscopic perspectives. We found out that, though the possibility that insurance system caused systematic risk was slim currently, the possibility was increasing gradually with further business innovation of insurers. The insurers'' noncore business, such as shortterm funding and off balance sheet derivative transactions had considerable possibility to pose systematic risks. Finally, we proposed some suggestions about the macroprudent supervision on systematic risks in the Chinese insurance industry.
Key words： insurance system; systematic risk; macroprudent supervision
赵桂芹在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
保险业区域发展差异的演变及解释——基于shapley值的分解方法
我国寿险公司效率评价及其影响因素分析——基于修正的两阶段数据包络分析方法
吴洪在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
保险业区域发展差异的演变及解释——基于shapley值的分解方法
保险业周期性波动风险及逆周期监管文献述评
王雅婷
（首都经济贸易大学金融学院，北京 100070）
[摘要] 与经济周期类似，保险业经营波动也呈现一定周期性。对国内外相关文献梳理后认为，国外注重研究“承保周期”，主要集中在解释其产生原因，验证其在各国保险业的存在性；国内学者则在验证非寿险市场承保周期存在性的基础上，开始分析经济周期对保险市场波动的影响。总体而言，对保险业周期性波动的“整体性研究”较多，欠缺“结构性研究”。此外，在保险逆周期监管研究方面，现有文献侧重逆周期监管的必要性研究和监管措施研究，尚未对逆周期监管的两个难点有所突破。未来我们至少可以在以下三个方面作进一步探索：研究重点应侧重“保险周期”而非“承保周期”；分析保险周期与经济周期的波动形态差异和结构性差异；加强逆周期监管的“预见性”和“适度性”研究。
[关键词] 保险业波动；经济周期；承保周期；保险周期；逆周期监管
Cyclical Fluctuations and Anticyclical Regulation in Insurance Industry：A Literature Review
Wang Yating
（School of Financial of Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070）
Abstract：Just like the economic cycle, there is also a periodic fluctuation in the insurance industry. After reviewing the literature, it is found that underwriting cycle is emphasized by researchers in developed countries who mainly focus on explaining the causes of the cycle and verifying its existence in various countries. Chinese researchers mainly study the impact of economic cycle on insurance fluctuations after having verified the existence of underwriting cycle in the nonlife insurance market. On the whole, there is more "holistic research" than "structured research" on insurance fluctuations. Furthermore, researchers focus on the necessity regarding anticyclical regulation and the regulation tools. No breakthrough has been made on the two difficulties of anticyclical regulation. Perhaps the three points we should attach importance to in future studies are: "insurance cycle" instead of "underwriting cycle", the difference in fluctuation patterns and structures between the insurance cycle and the economic cycle, and the "foresightedness" and "moderation" about anticyclical regulation.
Key words：insurance fluctuation; economic cycle; underwriting cycle; insurance cycle; anticyclical regulation