相关链接： 《保险研究》2012年第7期目录及摘要
我国第二代偿付能力监管制度体系建设中的几个关键问题
谢志刚
（上海财经大学金融学院保险精算研究中心，上海 200433）
[摘要]通过识别和界定我国第二代偿付能力监管制度体系的建设目标，结合前期相关研究积累，本文对比分析了中国保监会关于该制度体系建设《规划》中、以及制度体系建设领导小组《工作简报第1~3号》中所披露的初步设计方案，包括分析了该制度体系建设的基本原则、整体框架和制定监管资本要求的计算标准等问题，认为目前的思路和初步设计没有达到建设目标所要求的高度，并针对这些问题提出九条建议。
[关键词]保险监管；第二代偿付能力监管制度体系
Key Issues in Building the 2nd Generation Solvency Regulatory System of China
Xie Zhi-gang
（School of Finance of Shanghai University of Finance & Economics,Shanghai 200433）
Abstract：By studying the objectives of the 2nd generation solvency regulatory and supervisory system of China,this paper analysed the key issues including the basic principles,the overall framework and the calculation standards of regulatory capital requirements,which was disclosed in CIRC′s plan and its work progress report No.1-3,and then concluded that the current vein of thought and initial design on these three key issues did not well match the original objectives.Based on the analysis,nine suggestions were posed towards the completion of the system.
Key words：insurance regulation & supervision；the 2nd generation solvency regulatory and supervisory system of China
谢志刚在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
国内自保市场与再保险市场共同发展研究
徐英
（上海金融学院，上海 201209）
[摘要]自保公司既可以是再保险市场的需求方，也可以是再保险市场的供给方，因此，自保公司与再保险市场关系密切。本文首先分析了自保公司和再保险市场的内在关系，然后以百慕大作为案例实证自保市场与再保险市场两者结合有利于实现共同发展，最后探讨了国内自保市场与再保险市场共同发展的可行性及建议。
[关键词]自保公司；再保险市场；共同发展
The Mutual Development of the Captive Insurance Market and Reinsurance Market in China
Xu Ying
（Shanghai Finance University，Shanghai 200433）
Abstract：Captive insurance company is either the demand side or the supply side of the reinsurance market.Therefore，it is closely related to the reinsurance market.This paper first analyzed the relationship between captive insurance company and reinsurance market，and then it used Bermuda as a case to make an empirical analysis to demonstrate that combination of the captive market and reinsurance market could help to achieve mutual development of them.Finally，the paper discussed the feasibility of achieving mutual development for the domestic captive market and reinsurance market，and put forward some recommendations.
Key words：captive insurance company；reinsurance market；mutual development
徐英在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国与世界保险市场的联动性研究——寿险与财险市场的比较
粟芳 谭中
（上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433）
[摘要]作为世界经济的一部分，我国的保险业与世界保险业的联系越来越紧密。我国保险市场不断学习世界保险市场的先进经验，世界保险市场的发展和变化也不断影响着我国保险市场。许多学者基于经济基础说和市场传染说的理论研究了中国证券市场与世界市场之间同步变化的现象及原因。本文借鉴证券市场联动性分析的理论和方法，利用中国和世界保险市场的数据进行了深入研究。分析结果表明，由于经济规律的同质性，中国寿险市场与世界寿险市场的发展轨迹基本相似，而财险市场的长期均衡性却不明显。短期来看，世界保险市场对中国保险市场的影响不大。但是，世界财产保险市场对中国财产保险市场单向溢出影响还是比较大的。特别是当世界财产保险市场发生了比较大的波动时，对中国财产保险市场的影响就更大。
[关键词]保险市场；联动性；协整检验；Granger因果检验；分位数回归
Analysis of the Co-movement of China and Global Insurance Markets
——Comparable Analysis of Life Insurance and Non-life Insurance
Su Fang, Tan Zhong
（Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433）
Abstract：As a component of the global economy, the ties between the Chinese insurance market and its global counterparts are stronger and stronger. The Chinese insurance market is constantly drawing on advanced experiences of the international market, while the development of global insurance market also constantly affects that of China. Based on the economic fundamentals theory and market contagion theory, some researches had explained the phenomenon and causes of the co-movement of the global securities markets. The paper borrowed on the securities market′s global co-movement theory and method to conduct a research into the similar phenomenon in the insurance market with the insurance market data of China and the global counterparts. The results showed that, due to the homogeneity of economic laws, the co-movement of Chinese insurance market and global insurance market was very significant,especially in the life insurance market.But the development of non-life insurance markets followed a significantly different pace and track.On the other hand,in short term,the global insurance market affected Chinese insurance market slightly.But the global non-life insurance market had significant unidirectional spillover effect on Chinese non-life insurance market.Especially,when there was a large fluctuation in the global non-life insurance market, the impacts on China′s non-life insurance market were more significant.
Key words：insurance market；co-movement；Johansen Test；Granger Test；quantile regression
粟芳在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
经理报酬对中国上市保险公司效率的影响——基于随机前沿（SFA）方法的实证研究
叶成徽1.2 陈晓安2
（1.海南师范大学经济与管理学院，海南 海口 571158；2.西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130）
[摘要]以中国人寿、中国平安和中国太保三家上市保险公司作为研究样本，包括中国平安2004年～2010年、中国人寿2006年～2010年和中国太保2007年～2010年的全部16组样本数据，采用Cobb-Douglas成本函数作为随机前沿成本函数和随机前沿利润函数的形式，结合Battese & Coelli（1995）模型构建中国上市保险公司利润效率和成本效率的实证模型，并在此基础上分析经理报酬对中国上市保险公司效率的影响，从而得出结论：经理薪酬对公司利润效率有显著的负向影响，对成本效率没有显著影响；经理持股对公司利润效率有显著的正向影响，对成本效率有显著的负向影响。
[关键词]经理薪酬；经理持股；上市保险公司；随机前沿利润效率；随机前沿成本效率
Analysis on the Influence of the Manager′s Payment to Chinese Listed Insurance Company′s Efficiency
——Based on the Empirical Study Method of Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA)
Ye Cheng-hui 1,2, Chen Xiao-an2
（1.School of Economics and Management of Hainan Normal University,Haikou Hainan 571158;2.Insurance College of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 611130）
Abstract：This paper took China life, Ping An and China Pacific as research samples.Based on 16 batches of sample data,including Ping An data of 2004～2010,China Life data of 2006～2010 and China Pacific data of 2007～2010,the paper used the Cobb-Douglas cost function as the form of stochastic frontier cost function and profit function,and in combination with the Battese & Coelli (1995) model,built empirical models of China′s listed insurance companies′ profit efficiency and cost efficiency,and analyzed the influence of manager compensation to these companies′ profit and cost efficiency.It drew the following conclusions: the manager′s salary had significantly negative influence on company′s profit efficiency,but had no significant effect on the cost efficiency; the manager′s share holdings had significantly positive impacts on company′s profit efficiency,but had significantly negative impacts on the cost efficiency.
Key words：manager compensation； manager share holdings； listed company； Stochastic frontier profit efficiency； Stochastic frontier cost efficiency
叶成徽在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
陈晓安在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
寿险业退保行为及其影响因素实证研究
孙蓉 张宗军
（西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130）
[摘要]退保行为对寿险公司的经营和发展产生了重大的影响，文章将影响退保行为的外部因素归纳为“财务危机”和“替代效应”，并以退保率为被解释变量，选择六个具有代表性的指标为解释变量，利用1983年～2010年的数据进行时间序列的逐步回归。实证检验表明两大因素同时存在，但代表这两大因素的六个指标的显著性存在较大的差异，这种差异既符合经济传导机制又与市场现实相吻合。
[关键词]退保行为；财务危机；替代效应；逐步回归
An Empirical Study of Factors Affecting Surrender Behaviors in Life Insurance Industry
Sun Rong,Zhang Zong-jun
（The College of Insurance of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 611130）
Abstract：The surrender behavior has important influence on the operation and development of life insurance companies.The external factors affecting surrenders can be summed up as“financial crisis”and“substitution effect”.The article selected the surrender rate as the explained variable and other six representative indexes as explanatory variables，using 1983~2010 data for time series stepwise regression.The empirical test showed that the two factors of“financial crisis”and“substitution effect”both impacted surrenders.But the significance of these six indicators was widely different.This difference was consistent with the economic transmission mechanism and the market realities.
Key words：behavior of surrender；financial crisis；substitution effect；stepwise regression
孙蓉在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
张宗军在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
考虑赔付约束的我国寿险业效率及全要素生产率研究——基于SBM方向距离函数的分析
支燕
（南开大学经济与社会发展研究院，天津 300071）
[摘要]运用SBM方向距离函数和Luenberger生产率指标测度2006年～2010年我国42家寿险公司的经营效率和全要素生产率变动，并对其进行了分解。研究结果发现：在考虑赔付支出的情况下，我国寿险业的平均无效率值为46.74%，其中，中资寿险公司的无效率值为33.47%，外资公司为60.01%。中资寿险公司的效率值优于外资公司；寿险产品的同质化及较强的投资性属性，使得在投资环境疲弱的环境下，投资收益的无效率成为制约寿险业经营效率提升的重要原因；寿险业平均全要素生产率为23.8%，其中，中资寿险公司为77.31%，外资公司为29.72%，规模扩张增速放缓导致的规模效率变化为负是影响寿险业全要素生产率提升的重要原因之一。本文据此提出相关政策建议。
[关键词]寿险业；效率；SBM方向距离函数；Luenberger生产率指标
The Research on China′s Life Insurance Industry′s Efficiency and TFP under the Constraint of Claims
——Based on the Dnalysis of SBM Directional Distance Function
Zhi Yan
（Institute of Economic and Social Development of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071）
Abstract：This paper applied SBM directional distance function and Luenberger productivity indicator to measure the life insurance industry′s efficiency and TFP under the constraint of claims.The result showed:China′s life insurance industry′s non-efficiency was 46.74% under the consideration of claims,in which Chinese companies′ non-efficiency was 33.47%,and foreign companies′ non-efficiency was 60.01%.Chinese companies′ efficiency value was better than the foreign companies′.The products′ homogeneity and investment-oriented characteristics caused a relatively high non-efficiency of investment income.Therefore in a weak investment environment,the non-efficiency of investment income was the major factor affecting the operational efficiency of the life insurance industry.Life insurance′s TFP was 23.8%,in which Chinese companies′ TFP was 77.31%,and foreign companies′ TFP was -29.72%.The slowing down of business expansion and growth were the main reason which hampered the enhancement of TFP.The paper put forward some suggestions according to the analysis above.
Key words：life insurance industry；efficiency； SBM directional distance function； Luenberger productivity indicator
居民人身保险消费行为及其影响因素分析——基于粤东四市人身保险消费行为调查
刘坤坤1 万金2 黄毅3
（1.广东工业大学，广东 广州 510006；2.中国保险监督管理委员会广东监管局汕头分局，广东 汕头 510006；3.中国保险监督管理委员会广东监管局，广东 广州 510620）
[摘要]保险消费是保险业发展的原始动力。深入了解居民保险消费心理和消费行为是有效开发我国潜在巨大保险需求市场的前提。本文在问卷调查的基础上，采用因子和聚类分析方法，对影响保险消费行为的因素和不同保险消费群体进行分析，得出收入水平是限制保险消费的基础因素，但行业在培育公众风险和保险意识、提供有效供给和优质服务方面仍大有可为。
[关键词]人身保险；消费行为；影响分析
Analysis of the Patterns of Life Insurance Consumption and the Impacts of Related Factors
Liu Kun-kun1, Wan Jin2, Huang Yi3
（1.Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong 510006;2.Shantou Bureau of CIRC,Shantou Guangdong 510006;3.Guangdong Bureau of CIRC,Guangzhou Guangdong 510620）
Abstract：The insurance consumption is the original driving force for the development of the insurance industry.At present,having an in-depth understanding of the consumers\' insurance consumption mentality and consumption behaviors is the prerequisite for effectively tapping the immense potential of the insurance market.Based on the relevant life insurance consuming behavior surveys,the paper conducted a research on factors affecting insurance consumption of different consumer groups,using factorial analysis and cluster analysis methods.The research came to the conclusion that income level was the fundamental factor constraining insurance consumption,but the industry could significantly boost insurance consumption through enhancing insurance and risk awareness,improving on the supply side and offering quality services.
Key words：life insurance； consumption patterns； impact analysis
责任保险保险事故理论的反思与重建
温世扬 姚赛
（武汉大学法学院，湖北 武汉 430072）
[摘要]受积极财产保险独大的理论背景的影响，传统的以损害事故说、请求说等为代表的责任保险保险事故学说均有不足之处。科学界定责任保险保险事故，首先应严格区分赔偿责任关系中受害第三者的损害及责任保险关系中被保险人的损害。被保险人期望以责任保险分散的除承担责任的风险外，还有应付纷争的风险，当被保险人受到第三者赔偿请求时，纵使该请求不当，对被保险人仍属不利益，保险人应履行协助抗辩的义务，在赔偿责任确定时，被保险人方享有保险金请求权。故以第三者请求为标志的被保险人不利益的发生，应构成责任保险的保险事故。
[关键词]责任保险；保险事故；保险利益
Introspection on the Theory of Insurance Accident in Liability Insurance and Theoretical Reconstruction
Wen Shi-yang, Yao Sai
（Wuhan University School of Law,Wuhan Hubei 430072）
Abstract：The traditional doctrines about liability insurance′s insurance accident have some flaws under the influence of proactive property& casualty insurance theories.To define what is the liability insurance′s insurance accident academically,we should first strictly distinguish the damages to the insured and that to the third party.As it is expected by the insured,the insurer′s obligation is not limited to compensating for the damages as it is covered in the liability insurance,but should also extend to the possible claim from the third party,because the latter may result in damages to the insured person.Therefore,the insurer should fulfill its obligation of plea against such claim.But when the liability to the third party is determined,the insured can exercise the claims for insurance compensation.The occurrence of the insured′s non-interest due to the claim by a third party should be recognized as the insurance accident of liability insurance.
Key words：liability insurance；insurance accident；insurable interests
交强险制度的解释适用与立法完善
刘锐
（国家行政学院法学部，北京 100089）
[摘要]在交强险的实践中，存在很多有争议的问题，如保险公司赔偿责任的性质，无证、醉酒驾驶情形保险公司是否应当承担赔偿责任，分项责任限额是否应当打破，医疗费用的赔偿标准以及精神损害是否应当赔偿等。最高人民法院针对交通事故处理法律适用的司法解释[HTSS]（征求意见稿）[HTK]对这些争论问题都作了回应，多数规定符合交强险的立法宗旨，但通过司法解释解决现行交强险的问题有很大局限性，应当通过立法途径彻底解决交强险的基本制度结构缺陷。
[关键词]交强险；实践争论；司法解释；立法完善
The Judicial Explanation and Legislative Perfection of Motor Vehicle Compulsory Insurance
Liu Rui
（Chinese Academy of Governance,Beijing 100089）
Abstract：There were many controversial issues in the practice of motor vehicle compulsory insurance such as the nature of the insurance company′s liability,whether the insurance company should compensate when the driver driving without license or drunk,whether the various liability capper item can be exceeded,the criteria of medical expense compensation and whether the mental damages should be included.The draft of judicial interpretation of the Supreme Court for soliciting opinions on traffic accidents responded to these questions,and most of the provisions conformed to the legislative aim of related laws.However,the judicial interpretation has a very limited role in solving the current problems of motor vehicle compulsory insurance system.Only through legislative ways can the structural defects of motor vehicle compulsory insurance be properly delt with.
Key words：motor vehicle compulsory insurance；practice arguments； judicial interpretation；legislative perfection
车险已发生已报告未决赔款准备金研究——基于报案自动立案的方法
白魁耀1 刘琳2 陈辉1.2
（1.长安责任保险股份有限公司，北京 100062；2.防灾科技学院，河北 廊坊 065201）
[摘要]在目前管理模式下，已发生已报告未决赔款准备金存在计提不及时、不真实的问题。本文采用理论和实证相结合的研究方法，从流程再造的角度，提出采用报案自动立案、核损和理算后分别自动调整已发生已报告未决赔款准备金的方法，并进行实证检验和成本收益分析。结果表明，增加这一管理环节有利于提高已发生已报告未决赔款准备金提取的及时性和准确性。
[关键词]机动车辆保险；已发生已报告未决赔款准备金 ；自动立案
The Research on Incurred and Reported Outstanding Claims Reserves of Motor Insurance
——Based on Automatic Record Method
Bai Kui-yao1, Liu Lin2, Chen Hui1,2
（1.Chang An Property and Liability Insurance Company Ltd，Beijing 100062;2. Institute of Disaster Prevention,Langfang Hebei 065201）
Abstract：This paper pointed out that there were problems of delayed recognition and impreciseness of incurred and reported outstanding claims reserves under the current management mode.Using theoretical and empirical research methods,it proposed to reengineer the business process by adopting firstly the method of automatic record,then updating the incurred and reported outstanding claims reserves automatically after loss adjustment and settlement,and finally conducting exponential checking and income and cost analysis.The result showed that this change would be able to enhance the timeliness of reserve recognition and its precision.
Key words：motor insurance business； incurred and reported outstanding claims reserves； automatic record
我国机动车辆保险市场发展的需求拉动因素研究
刘璐1 张博江2
（1.北京工商大学经济学院，北京 100048；2.华泰保险集团股份有限公司，北京 100033）
[摘要]近些年来，我国机动车辆保险市场呈现出迅速扩张的势头，车险成为提升最快的险种之一。目前作为财产保险的第一大险种——机动车辆保险，在促进财产保险业发展的同时也成为整个保险业的重大影响因素之一。本文在对我国机动车辆保险市场发展现状进行阐述的基础上，分析各个因素对于机动车辆保险市场的影响。根据影响需求的因素分析并结合计量经济学回归模型，提出相关的政策与建议从而发掘机动车辆保险市场需求潜力，并根据模型得出的结论对未来几年我国机动车辆保险的保费收入做出相应的预测。
[关键词]机动车辆保险；发展现状；需求因素
Research on Demands-driven Factors for the Development of the Motor Insurance Market in China
Liu Lu1, Zhang Bo-jiang2
（1.School of Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048;2.Huatai Insurance Group,Beijing 100033）
Abstract：The motor vehicle insurance market in China has been expanding rapidly in recent years and has become one of the lines of business with the fastest growth rate.As the biggest insurance business of property insurance,motor vehicle insurance has greatly enhanced the development of the property insurance and is also one of the major drivers for the development of the whole insurance industry.This paper analyzed various factors affecting the motor vehicle insurance market following an elaboration on the current situation of motor vehicle insurance market in China.Based on the factors influencing motor vehicle insurance demands and in combination with the measurement economics model,the paper tried to come up with some advice and policy suggestions to further exploit the market potential and make a reasonable prediction for the premium income of motor vehicle insurance in China in the coming years according to the results of the analysis.
Key words：motor vehicle insurance；current status；demand factors
张博江在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
发达国家保险资金运用主要做法中国化的思考
张立勇
（湖北经济学院金融学院，湖北 武汉 430205）
[摘要]西方发达国家在保险资金投资运用和管理方面有着非常成熟的做法，特别是将保险业保障功能和保险资金投资功能结合起来的做法更是值得我们学习，将西方发达国家保险资金运用成功的经验和做法中国化，可以使我国保险业获得跨越式发展。
[关键词]发达国家；保险资金；运用做法；中国化
Reflections on Introducing Insurance Fund Investment Practices of Developed Countries into China
Zhang Li-yong
（Financial School of Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan Hubei 430205）
Abstract：Western developed countries are very experienced in investment and management of insurance funds,in particular,their practices of combining the protection functions of insurance industry and the investment function of insurance funds together are worth of our learning.Bringing their successful experiences for managing insurance funds into China can accelerate the development of China′s insurance industry by leaps and bounds.
Key words：developed countries；insurance funds；use and practice；introduction into China
通货膨胀与工资增长：调整我国基本养老金的新思路与系统方案
阳义南 申曙光
（中山大学岭南学院，广东 广州 510275）
[摘要]在通货膨胀和工资增长的背景下，调整基本养老金关系到我国2.6亿参保职工退休后的实际生活水平和基本养老保险基金的长期收支平衡。针对当前我国基本养老金调整机制的三个主要缺陷：启动机制、调整比例、调整基数，借鉴国际经验，并根据我国《社会保险法》等法律法规，构建了一个包含消费物价指数、实际工资增长率的双重参照系数及其临界值的启动机制；提出一个与消费物价指数、社会平均工资增长率双挂钩的调整比例公式，并利用2000年～2011年广东省21个地市基本养老金的实际调整数据，拟合得到两个指标的具体权重；最后还提出同时使用各地平均基本养老金、退休人员本人基本养老金来共同作为调整基数，从而构成了我国基本养老金调整机制的系统方案。
[关键词]基本养老金；启动机制；调整比例；调整基数
Inflation and Wage Growth: New Method and Systematic Scheme for the Adjustment of China′s Basic Pension System[JP]
Yang Yi-nan, Shen Shu-guang
（Lingnan College of Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510275）
Abstract：With the prospect of inflation and salary increase,the adjustment mechanism of the basic pension system affects greatly the living of China′s 260 million working and retired workers,and also the financial balance of the Basic Pension Fund.This article focused on solving the three flaws of the adjustment mechanism of China′s basic pension system,which were launching procedure,adjustment formula and adjustment base.Based on the experiences of other countries and the rules of Social Insurance Law,this article constructed a launching procedure which included CPI,real wage growth rate and their threshold limit value,a new adjustment proportion formula which linked with CPI and average social wage growth rate.The weighting of these two parameters were decided according to the actual adjusted data of the basic pension funds of 21 cities and prefectures of Guangdong province during 2000-2011.The article also suggested a new adjustment base which simultaneously used the local average basic pension and the basic pension of the retirees.These three parameters would constitute a systematic adjustment mechanism of China′s basic pension system.
Key words：basic pension；launching procedure； adjustment proportion； adjustment base
阳义南在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
申曙光在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
社会医疗保险政策对医疗服务需求影响效应的实证研究—基于广东省云浮市参保群体的分析
边疆少数民族地区社会保障问题研究——基于内蒙古四个人口较少民族聚居地的调查
安华1 李香媛2 张恒新3 张晓峰4
（1.内蒙古大学公共管理学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010070；2.内蒙古社会保障协会，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010010）
[摘要]目前，我国边疆少数民族地区社会保障制度建设相对比较滞后。由于民族地区具有特殊的民族文化特征，其社会保障制度的建设不能简单照搬国内其他城市的经验，应当结合民族地区的实际，因地制宜地采取相应对策，将社会保障理论的一般性与民族地区的实践特殊性相结合，进行社会保障的差异化制度设计。
[关键词]民族地区；少数民族；社会保障
Research on Social Security Issues in Frontier Ethnic Minorities Areas
——Based on Research of Four Small Ethnic Group Settlements in Inner Mongolia
An Hua1，Li Xiang-yuan2，Zhang Heng-xin2，Zhang Xiao-feng2
（1.School of Public Administration,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010070;2.Social Security Institute of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot Inner Mongolia 010010）
Abstract：[JP]The social security system establishment relatively falls behind in frontier ethnic minority areas.Because of the cultural uniqueness in these areas,the experiences of other cities cannot be transplanted to these areas in establishing the social security system here.We should properly consider the actual situation of the locality,and take appropriate measures to combine the general nature of social security theories with local unique features in order to design a differentiated social security system there.
Key words：ethnic group areas； ethnic minorities； social security
安华在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
地震应急能力指数的量化评估指标体系研究
段胜
（西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130）
[摘要]通过科学的指标构建来量化地震风险的预警与应急能力已经成为整合性风险管理框架下地震风险管理的发展方向。本文利用灾害学的量化评估方法，根据统计指数的构建理论，从统计指数的指标构建到实际应用，设计出一套较为系统的地震应急能力指数，希望以此丰富地震风险管理中的研究方法。本文的研究结果显示，从横向对比上看，统计时点影响和经济价值影响使得汶川地震的各项地震应急能力指数数值结果明显高于雅江—康定地震；而从纵向对比上看，两次地震的测算结果均表明地震预测与监控能力指数的综合权重最高，因此在未来的工作中需要增加地震预防过程中的投入，提高地震的预测与监控水平。
[关键词]地震风险；应急能力指数；指标构建；实证应用
The Quantitative Assessment Study of Risk Emergency-Response Capacity Index for Earthquake
Duan Sheng
（Insurance College of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu SiChuan 611130）
Abstract：Constructing indicators to quantify advance warning and emergency responding for earthquake risk management has become the future direction of the earthquake risk management under integrated risk management framework.Based on quantitative analysis methods in disaster science and statistical index construction principle,this paper designed a complete set of emergency response capacity index of earthquake risk management from theory indicators construction to practical application,in order to develop earthquake risk management research methods.The conclusions were :From horizontal comparison,as the result of time point and economic value factors,the number of earthquake emergency response capability index in Yajiang-Kangding earthquake was higher than Wenchuan earthquake; From longitudinal comparison,the combined weight of prediction and monitoring capability index was the highest in both earthquakes,so we need to increase investment and improve management in earthquake prediction and monitoring.
Key words：earthquake risk；emergency-response capacity index； indicators constriction；empirical application
段胜在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
巨灾债券对投资组合分时期影响的实证分析
韦勇凤1 李勇1巴曙松1.2
（1.中国科学技术大学管理学院，安徽 合肥 230026；2.国务院发展研究中心金融研究所,北京 100010）
[摘要]"近十多年来，作为连接保险市场和资本市场的工具，巨灾风险证券化的产品很多。其中，巨灾债券的发行量最大、最为成功，它在扩大了保险承保能力的同时,为资本市场的投资者提供了一种高收益、低风险的投资工具。在分析巨灾债券的发行情况的基础上，对金融危机前后以及金融危机期间，巨灾债券对投资组合有效前沿的影响进行实证分析。分析的结果表明，巨灾债券作为一种特殊的资产，能够改善投资组合的有效前沿，并扩展投资组合的有效前沿，特别是在金融危机期间，这种影响更为显著。"
[关键词]巨灾再保险；巨灾债券；投资组合；有效前沿；实证分析
An Empirical Study on the Impacts of Catastrophe Bonds on Investment Portfolios at Different Stages
Wei Yong-feng1，Li Yong2，Ba Shu-song1,2
（1.University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei Anhui 230026;2.Institute of Finance and Banking,Development Research Center of the State Council,Beijing 100010）
Abstract：There have been a lot of securitized catastrophe products as instruments connecting insurance market and capital market since last decade.And catastrophe bond is the most successful instrument with the biggest issuance volume.Catastrophe bond could be a high return and low-risk investment asset as well as an instrument helping insurers to expand their underwriting capacity.This paper first analyzed the background for catastrophe bond issuance, then studied the effects of catastrophe bond on efficient frontier of investment portfolios before,during and after the financial crisis.The empirical study showed that,as a special asset,catastrophe bond could improve and enlarge the efficient frontier of investment portfolio and that this effect was more obvious during financial crisis period.
Key words：catastrophe reinsurance； catastrophe bond；investment portfolio； efficient frontier；empirical study